February 2022 - cypherpunks@lists.ogf.org

Limits to growth
by coderman 22 Jun '22

22 Jun '22

https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-pre… MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule. NA by [Nafeez Ahmed](https://www.vice.com/en/contributor/nafeez-ahmed) July 14, 2021, 6:00am - - - [GettyImages-1189106363] Image: Getty A remarkable new study by a director at one of the largest accounting firms in the world has found that a famous, decades-old warning from MIT about the risk of industrial civilization collapsing appears to be accurate based on new empirical data. As the world looks forward to a rebound in economic growth following the devastation wrought by the pandemic, the research raises urgent questions about the risks of attempting to simply return to the pre-pandemic ‘normal.’ In 1972, a team of MIT scientists got together to study the risks of civilizational collapse. Their [system dynamics model](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jun/04/sc… published by the Club of Rome identified impending ‘limits to growth’ (LtG) that meant industrial civilization was on track to collapse sometime within the 21st century, due to overexploitation of planetary resources. The controversial MIT analysis generated heated debate, and was widely derided at the time by pundits who misrepresented its findings and methods. But the analysis has now received stunning vindication from a study written by a senior director at professional services giant KPMG, one of the 'Big Four' accounting firms as measured by global revenue. Limits to growth The study was published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in November 2020 and is available [on the KPMG website](https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html). It concludes that the current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward the terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade—and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040. The study represents the first time a top analyst working within a mainstream global corporate entity has taken the ‘limits to growth’ model seriously. Its author, Gaya Herrington, is Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at KPMG in the United States. However, she decided to undertake the research as a personal project to understand how well the MIT model stood the test of time. The study itself is not affiliated or conducted on behalf of KPMG, and does not necessarily reflect the views of KPMG. Herrington performed the research as an extension of [her Masters thesis](https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37364868) at Harvard University in her capacity as an advisor to the Club of Rome. However, she is quoted [explaining her project](https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html) on the KPMG website as follows: “Given the unappealing prospect of collapse, I was curious to see which scenarios were aligning most closely with empirical data today. After all, the book that featured this world model was a bestseller in the 70s, and by now we’d have several decades of empirical data which would make a comparison meaningful. But to my surprise I could not find recent attempts for this. So I decided to do it myself.” Titled ‘Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data’, the study attempts to assess how MIT’s ‘World3’ model stacks up against new empirical data. Previous studies that attempted to do this found that the model’s worst-case scenarios accurately reflected real-world developments. However, the [last study](https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf) of this nature was completed in 2014. The risk of collapse Herrington’s new analysis examines data across 10 key variables, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. She found that the latest data most closely aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology). “BAU2 and CT scenarios show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study concludes. “Both scenarios thus indicate that continuing business as usual, that is, pursuing continuous growth, is not possible. Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption, business as usual as modelled by LtG would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare levels within this century.” Study author Gaya Herrington told Motherboard that in the MIT World3 models, collapse “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist,” but rather that “economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will hurt food production and standards of living… In terms of timing, the BAU2 scenario shows a steep decline to set in around 2040.” [image3.png] The ‘Business-as-Usual’ scenario (Source: Herrington, 2021 The end of growth? In the comprehensive technology (CT) scenario, economic decline still sets in around this date with a range of possible negative consequences, but this does not lead to societal collapse. [image1.png] The ‘Comprehensive Technology’ scenario (Source: Herrington, 2021 Unfortunately, the scenario which was the least closest fit to the latest empirical data happens to be the most optimistic pathway known as ‘SW’ (stabilized world), in which civilization follows a sustainable path and experiences the smallest declines in economic growth—based on a combination of technological innovation and widespread investment in public health and education. [image2.png] )The ‘Stabilized World’ Scenario (Source: Herrington, 2021) Although both the business-as-usual and comprehensive technology scenarios point to the coming end of economic growth in around 10 years, only the BAU2 scenario “shows a clear collapse pattern, whereas CT suggests the possibility of future declines being relatively soft landings, at least for humanity in general.” Both scenarios currently “seem to align quite closely not just with observed data,” Herrington concludes in her study, indicating that the future is open. A window of opportunity While focusing on the pursuit of continued economic growth for its own sake will be futile, the study finds that technological progress and increased investments in public services could not just avoid the risk of collapse, but lead to a new stable and prosperous civilization operating safely within planetary boundaries. But we really have only the next decade to change course. “At this point therefore, the data most aligns with the CT and BAU2 scenarios which indicate a slowdown and eventual halt in growth within the next decade or so, but World3 leaves open whether the subsequent decline will constitute a collapse,” the study concludes. Although the ‘stabilized world’ scenario “tracks least closely, a deliberate trajectory change brought about by society turning toward another goal than growth is still possible. The LtG work implies that this window of opportunity is closing fast.” In a presentation at the World Economic Forum in 2020 delivered in her capacity as a KPMG director, Herrington [argued](https://www.weflive.com/story/e968fb0963974e1e8f6c636e5654cbc2) for ‘agrowth’—an agnostic approach to growth which focuses on other economic goals and priorities. “Changing our societal priorities hardly needs to be a capitulation to grim necessity,” she said. “Human activity can be regenerative and our productive capacities can be transformed. In fact, we are seeing examples of that happening right now. Expanding those efforts now creates a world full of opportunity that is also sustainable.” She noted how the rapid development and deployment of vaccines at unprecedented rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that we are capable of responding rapidly and constructively to global challenges if we choose to act. We need exactly such a determined approach to the environmental crisis. “The necessary changes will not be easy and pose transition challenges but a sustainable and inclusive future is still possible,” said Herrington. The best available data suggests that what we decide over the next 10 years will determine the long-term fate of human civilization. Although the odds are on a knife-edge, Herrington pointed to a “rapid rise” in environmental, social and good governance priorities as a basis for optimism, signalling the change in thinking taking place in both governments and businesses. She told me that perhaps the most important implication of her research is that it’s not too late to create a truly sustainable civilization that works for all.

4 6

Re: [crazy][hobby][spam] Automated Reverse Engineering
by k 18 Jun '22

18 Jun '22

i posted but my email disappeared for me, here's another. my continuing on this is waning atm, maybe will change. the first model was lost after a day or two when the notebook closed itself. reusing the token ids of the T5 tokenizer really speeds training from the T5 model. i spent some time hacking a tokenizer that both engages byte data and toikenizes embedded strings, but it seems it would be better if the token ids of the previous tokenizer were used, to reuse more of the model. there's a very early model at https://huggingface.co/baffo32/pyc2py_alpha that could maybe seed the .ipynb or its associated .py file in https://github.com/xloem/techsketball . the model doesn't succeed yet, just gets more likely to. thinking of the intensity of this task, how [indescribably] hard it can be to continue: my example here was with pyc files, for which the source is almost always already available. this example gave me more ease when starting the project. however, more useful example data can give bigger return when projects struggle.

4 20

Water.org Sustainability Funders Disrespect China
by Gunnar Larson 07 Jun '22

07 Jun '22

xNY.io recently compiled a Water.org Global Risk Assessment (below) a few years ago now. As true New York diplomats, xNY.io is absolutely required to be friendly innovators with the dignity and trail blazing, historic pioneering spirit of the e-CNY initiative. There is no association with xNY.io and e-CNY, however, we seem to share the ideals of to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind, and to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and to promote social progress and better standards of life from regulatory arbitrage corruption. Water is life, for the human species. xNY.io, lucky in every way for our global marketplace position knows of a water assault on China. Given several factors, today as a disclosure technique we respect e-CNY outlining 'who may be a Water.org sustainability funder' ... So this hopefully will not affect xNY.io in the future. USDC and USDP are not our problem (people who know, know what this means). More research can be found here: https://chinapower.csis.org/china-water-security/ Water.org’s Key Institutional and Strategic Risks Water.org’s current risks and barriers to scale include concerns over misuse of loans, operational delays, fraud, error, and security, all of which undermine Water.org's objectives and mission. ● FRAUD: These deceptions often include manipulation of documents or the abuse of policies, procedures or office property. For example, in absence of a well-designed process for selection of a raw material supplier for the construction of toilets, operations staff can collude with dishonest suppliers and procure cheap, low-quality material at high rates, which could create infrastructure failures and lead to credit risk. ● ERROR: Errors are typically unintentional and result due to lack of staff capacity and training, rapid growth, limited technical resources, or an inadequate number of staff. Errors in judgement or incorrect interpretation of policies, procedures, documents, or cash transactions can create problems for an FI. For example, a branch manager might make an error in the appraisal of a WASH loan client if s/he has not received training on WASH lending. ● SECURITY: This refers to risk of cash or material theft. For example, for FIs that are involved in provision of construction materials, the storage of the materials and their delivery is a risk. ● INEFFICIENCY: Risk is created when there is low staff productivity or ineffective management leading to loss of efficiency. ● CREDIT RISK: An assessment of credit risk at Water.org investigated whether the credit policies and procedures are correctly followed and administered by the FI staff. This includes reviewing whether credit transactions are properly recorded and summarized in the account tracking system and presented in the financial and portfolio reports. For example, an FI in the Philippines had a loan product tenure of three months even though loan sizes were quite high. Clients who were assessed to be qualified for a loan of PHP 15,000 (US$340) ended up actually receiving nearly PHP 35,000 (US$793) over the course of a year, through multiple loan cycles. This flaw in the loan product design resulted in large-scale delinquency problems with clients in the third and fourth loan cycles Our Suggestion: Water.org 2.0, Blockchain and Energy Our research shows Water.org currently lacks developed, effective, accountable and transparent institutions reporting processes globally. Their published internal studies highlight FI corruption and bribery in all forms. Blockchain technology could help solve this, only implemented globally and monitored correctly. Most importantly, we strongly recommend Water.org executives should leverage blockchain and current partnerships, historically and radically innovating Water.org’s global scope to include solar energy in North Africa. ● Immediate Recommendation: Essential for Water.org’s global development reporting work to be organized and oriented in the same direction in order to focus on what really matters and ensure proper transparency and figures. Water.org has been working on the nieve, poor business assumption that goals can be achieved with enough political will, investment and action at all levels. ○ Integrated water resources reporting via Blockchain, include management smart contracts at all levels, including Water.org funds to FI, FI internal use of Water.org funds, client use of funds through to contractor ● Review Loan/Product Benefit: Water.org’s global executive team has not reflected the importance of complete sustainable development for their clients. Internal Data shows most Water.org wells/loan proceeds are ultimately lost, as the individual navigates life with unsolved energy and lack of access to basic economic/financial tools. ● Innovate Water.org’s Scope: Once defining clear and unified global standards, practices and reporting transparency on blockchain, eliminating current fiance transparency concerns ○ Microcredit water loans alone do not solve poverty (noted above) ○ Current UN research shows best poverty success advancement includes addressing three important dimensions simultaneously: i. Regular access to clean water/proper sanitation facilities ii. Access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy iii. Equal access to mobilized banking tools, insurance and microscred lending -- *Gunnar Larson - xNY.io <http://www.xNY.io> | Bank.org <http://Bank.org>* MSc <https://www.unic.ac.cy/blockchain/msc-digital-currency/?utm_source=Google&u…> - Digital Currency MBA <https://www.unic.ac.cy/business-administration-entrepreneurship-and-innovat…> - Entrepreneurship and Innovation (ip) G(a)xNY.io +1-646-454-9107 New York, New York 10001

1 1

Fwd: [OpenRecords] Request FOIL-2022-056-01966 Acknowledged
by Gunnar Larson 27 May '22

27 May '22

On 2/4/22 we submitted a FOIL Request to the NYPD seeking a copy of the Administrative Guide for best practices use of Sound Cannon; Sound Gun; Wave Gun; Sonic Weapons; Active Denial System. We have strong reasons to respect the technology and perhaps are 'hailed' daily ... The intent of the use of the technology at our expense in Chelsea, New York City is perhaps to be expected? It sure has been a learning experience and is not something I can control directly. Anyway, the NYPD got back to us on the Guide... See below: You can expect a response on or about Wednesday, August 3, 2022. Wow :) -- *Gunnar Larson - xNY.io <http://www.xny.io/> | Bank.org <http://bank.org/>* MSc <https://www.unic.ac.cy/blockchain/msc-digital-currency/?utm_source=Google&u…> - Digital Currency MBA <https://www.unic.ac.cy/business-administration-entrepreneurship-and-innovat…> - Entrepreneurship and Innovation (ip) G(a)xNY.io +1-646-454-9107 New York, New York 10001 ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: <donotreply(a)records.nyc.gov> Date: Thu, Feb 10, 2022 at 2:46 PM Subject: [OpenRecords] Request FOIL-2022-056-01966 Acknowledged To: <g(a)xny.io> The New York City Police Department (NYPD) has *acknowledged* your FOIL request FOIL-2022-056-01966 <https://a860-openrecords.nyc.gov/request/view/FOIL-2022-056-01966>. You can expect a response on or about Wednesday, August 3, 2022. Additional Information: Your request has been assigned to Police Officer Covo (646-610-6458). *Note: Due to issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic there may be extensive delays, lasting up to one year, in determining your request.* Please visit FOIL-2022-056-01966 <https://a860-openrecords.nyc.gov/request/view/FOIL-2022-056-01966> to view additional information and take any necessary action. ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: <donotreply(a)records.nyc.gov> Date: Fri, Feb 4, 2022 at 2:20 PM Subject: [OpenRecords] Request FOIL-2022-056-01966 Submitted to New York City Police Department (NYPD) To: <g(a)xny.io> Your request FOIL-2022-056-01966 has been successfully submitted to the New York City Police Department (NYPD). The details of your request are shown below. Request Title: Sound Cannon; Sound Gun; Wave Gun; Sonic Weapons; Active Denial System. Request Description: Other Request Request Type: Other Request *Other Request* Type of Request: Administrative Guide Report #: Date: 02/04/2022 Time: Precinct: Location: Description: We would like to receive a copy of the NYPD administrative guide related to the use of Sound Cannon; Sound Gun; Wave Gun; Sonic Weapons; Active Denial System technologies. Requester's Contact Information *Name:* Gunnar Larson *Title:* Not provided *Organization:* xNY.io *Email:* g(a)xny.io *Phone Number:* (646) 454-9107 *Fax Number:* Not provided *Street Address (line 1):* You can view the request and take any necessary action at the following webpage: https://a860-openrecords.nyc.gov/request/view/FOIL-2022-056-01966.

1 1

The Verge: Elon Musk says Starlink internet service will be ‘fully mobile’ in 2021
by jim bell 27 May '22

27 May '22

The Verge: Elon Musk says Starlink internet service will be ‘fully mobile’ in 2021. https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/16/22388378/elon-musk-starlink-satellite-in… Jim Bell's comment: I imagine, and hope, that this news will signal the ability of the Starlink system to be used by people in "freedom-hostile" nations. But, that may depend on how this is implemented. Can anyone buy a dish and use it anywhere on Earth? Without regard to political boundaries?

3 6

The New Yorker: How Vulnerable Is G.P.S.?
by jim bell 24 May '22

24 May '22

The New Yorker: How Vulnerable Is G.P.S.?. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-vulnerable-is-gps

2 1

Jan6: Patriot Purge (Documentary, Censored, Banned, Free Speech)
by grarpamp 07 May '22

07 May '22

https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ac4pyM37tJnb Patriot Purge - Full Docu 1:09:59 https://tuckercarlson.com/show/tucker-carlson-originals/ https://www.bitchute.com/search/?query=patriot+purge Panicked Democrats Call for Tucker Carlson to be Banned >From Television for Patriot Purge Documentary

1 1

Wake The Fuck Up: Thread
by grarpamp 29 Apr '22

29 Apr '22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7cecQsuHKA Another censored conversation Globalist power is coming for your freedom and that of people you care about and around you. All of the signs and pieces are being put together. Integrated arbitrary lightswitch control and worse. Fight back against power. Freedom depends on it. The day you fight back, is the day they start falling, and the day you start winning.

6 9

Friendship of the Rat and Chameleon
by zeynepaydogan 23 Apr '22

23 Apr '22

Rat and Chameleon were always best friends.Chameleon has always supported him.When the rat threatened and harassment people,Chameleon said :Rat is right https://cryptome.org/2014-info/isis-celebs/isis-celebs.htm

4 10

DropGangs: Post and Parcel Delivery Services Fully Monitored [re: WikiLeaks was: FreeAssange.net]
by grarpamp 17 Apr '22

17 Apr '22

> Guess who had a PO Box next to Wikileaks > > https://www.theage.com.au/national/world-leaders-would-love-the-key-to-this… > > They avoided a drone strike on the university by demolishing the > Melbourne Uni post office voluntarily: > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABWuKVaT13s > > After they destroyed that, they took out the local pub too: > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yCKYW5YUWw The USA USPS takes automated pictures of all items passing through its facilities, OCR them, stores them forever, and gives them away to whoever they like that comes asking. Mail and delivery services worldwide are now doing similar, including requiring and recording government photo ID to send parcels and letters, storing all camera footage, facial, and ALPR logs, of the facilities forever, etc.

5 8